The Schengen Mirage: Why EU Enlargement Hinges on Trust, Not Just Borders
As security fears reshape European priorities, the Western Balkans' EU dreams face a paradox: citizens want in, but member states hesitate. The real barrier isn't geography—it's political will.
Published on: June 20, 2025
The Coffee Shop Divide
At 3pm in a Sarajevo university district, the espresso machines work overtime. Here, EU accession isn't a policy debate—it's measured in visa rejections and scholarship quotas. 'We're stuck in Europe's waiting room,' says law student Lejla Hodžić, scrolling through yet another delayed progress report. Her generation was promised integration; instead, they got bureaucracy.
Meanwhile, 600km northwest in Vienna, retired teacher Gerhard Bauer adjusts his glasses to read the latest FPÖ anti-enlargement pamphlet. 'First they take our jobs, then our security,' the leaflet warns. It's working: Austria remains the EU's most consistent enlargement sceptic, with only 28% supporting Western Balkan accession.
The Numbers That Don't Add Up
- Bosnia & Herzegovina: 56% support (2024)
- Montenegro: Sharp drop from 60% to 39% in one year
- France: Only 42% of citizens back further enlargement
These figures reveal a dangerous asymmetry. While Balkan publics cling to EU membership as an economic lifeline, many Europeans see expansion as a security risk—despite 66% wanting stronger EU crisis protection.
The Ukraine Effect
Russia's invasion triggered a seismic shift. Overnight, Moldova went from geopolitical afterthought to candidate country. 'War made Brussels understand—stability has borders,' notes Sofia-based analyst Dimitar Bechev. But this security-first approach risks reducing the Western Balkans to a buffer zone rather than future partners.
Rewriting the Script
- From Aid Recipients to Security Partners: Joint cyber defense initiatives and arms production under the ReArm Europe Plan could showcase Balkan contributions.
- The Visa Test: When North Macedonia gained visa-free travel, EU approval jumped 12% in six months. Small wins build faith.
- Town Hall Europe: Commission offices in Marseille and Dortmund now host monthly 'Enlargement Dialogues'—ordinary citizens grilling diplomats over pints.
The Trust Deficit
In Brussels, enlargement remains a technocratic checklist. In Balkan capitals, it's become a political football. 'Governments blame EU 'conditions' for their own reform failures,' admits a Podgorica official anonymously. This blame game erodes trust on all sides.
The Way Forward
Will Europe's new security obsession finally unblock enlargement—or cement the Balkans as perpetual outsiders? The answer lies not in Brussels meeting rooms, but in places like Lejla's café and Gerhard's pensioner club. Because borders may be negotiated by diplomats, but unions are built by citizens.
Data sources: Eurobarometer Winter 2025, Balkan Barometer 2024, Carnegie Endowment analysis