Key Takeaways:
- A decade after the 2016 referendum, 55% of Britons now support rejoining the EU.
- PM Keir Starmer’s resignation has sparked a Labour leadership contest, with frontrunners backing EU re-entry.
- Economic studies show UK GDP 6-8% lower than if it had stayed in the bloc.
- Global shifts—Trump, AI regulation, and NATO strains—make EU membership more attractive.
- Rejoining would be a lengthy, complex process, with no guarantee of success.
A Decade of Disappointment
Ten years ago this week, British voters shocked the world by narrowly choosing to leave the European Union. The referendum, held on June 23, 2016, was supposed to restore sovereignty and boost prosperity. Instead, it has left the UK grappling with sluggish growth, political instability, and a growing sense of regret.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s announcement that he is stepping down—after just two years in office—has reignited the Brexit debate. His approval ratings are more than 50 points underwater, partly due to the enduring economic fallout. Since the referendum, Britain has had six prime ministers, each struggling either to implement Brexit or to cope with its consequences.
The Shift in Public Opinion
A recent YouGov poll found that 55% of Britons now favor rejoining the EU. Even more strikingly, a European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) survey revealed that 63% support closer economic ties with the bloc, even if it means accepting freedom of movement—a key issue that fueled the 2016 vote.
“It’s clear that Brexit has not delivered on its promises. The economy is weaker, immigration is higher, and the political system is in turmoil.” — Anand Menon, UK in a Changing Europe
The far-right Reform UK party has capitalized on anti-immigration sentiment, but support for returning to the EU spans the political spectrum. Even among Reform UK voters, majorities believe Brexit has hurt the economy.
Political Leaders Flip on Brexit
Among the candidates to replace Starmer, Andy Burnham, the frontrunner and former mayor of Manchester, has said he would like to see the UK rejoin the EU in his lifetime. Former health secretary Wes Streeting has also called for re-entry. London Mayor Sadiq Khan wants rejoining to be included in Labour’s next manifesto. A top Treasury official recently told Parliament that a return to membership was “an inevitability.”
On the European side, two-thirds of EU citizens back the UK’s return, according to the ECFR poll. Several European leaders have expressed support as well, though some warn that the UK may not get the same bespoke deal it had before.
Economic Reality Bites
The economic impact of Brexit is now undeniable. A recent Bank of England study estimated that UK GDP is 6-8% lower than it would have been had the country stayed in the EU. Productivity and investment have fallen, and living standards have risen more slowly than in comparable nations.
Ironically, the “Polish plumbers” that Brexit supporters feared are now working in a Poland that could soon overtake the UK in wealth. Meanwhile, irregular migration has increased since 2020, contrary to promises of border control.
The promised US free trade deal—championed by Donald Trump, who dubbed himself “Mr. Brexit”—never materialized. The so-called “Economic Prosperity Deal” rolled back some tariffs but was never ratified by Congress, leaving it vulnerable to future rollback.
Global Shifts Favor Rejoining
The world has changed since 2016, making EU membership more appealing. Trump’s adversarial approach to allies, his undermining of NATO, and the rise of AI regulation have all highlighted the benefits of pooling sovereignty. The UK’s absence from the bloc has hampered European efforts to bolster military coordination and respond to crises like the war in Ukraine.
Even Iceland, long resistant to EU membership, is now moving quickly toward joining, partly in response to Trump’s threats to Greenland.
The Rocky Road to Rejoining
Despite growing support, returning to the EU is fraught with obstacles. The fastest accession process (Finland’s) took three years; the UK’s would likely take longer, in part because European governments would want assurance that Britain “really means it this time.”
- Another referendum would likely be needed, or Labour could run on a rejoin platform in a general election.
- Parliamentary approval from all 27 member states is required; some countries, like France, would need their own referendums.
- Rising far-right sentiment—embodied by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK—raises the risk that a future government could reverse course.
Britain is also unlikely to regain its old opt-outs from the euro, Schengen, and certain regulations. As Poland’s foreign minister put it, this time there will be no “à la carte” membership.
What’s Next?
In the meantime, intermediate steps such as a Swiss-style deal (full market access with freedom of movement) or a Turkey-style customs union could serve as stopgaps. But the fundamental question remains: how much sovereignty is Britain willing to trade for integration?
“If Labour is heading into the next election looking like they’re going to get slaughtered, they might think they need a roll of the dice to reunite the progressives. Or if Donald Trump sends troops into Greenland, all bets are off.” — Anand Menon
Whether or not a full return is inevitable, the UK’s relationship with the EU remains a live issue. A decade after Brexit, the debate is far from over.